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Debt Can be Looked Upon in Various Ways
What is the Real Total Debt in the U.S.A.?
4/07/17 10:00 AM


Comstock has been discussing the debt situation in our country for years.  We wrote a “special report” discussing the various forms of debt and explained how the debt is incorporated in “The Cycle of Deflation” (see attachment) as the debt was hindering many speculators and investors just before the dot.com bubble was about ready to collapse.  We warned that the debt was the main reason that the valuations were the highest in history and would eventually break the market.  This was exactly what took place starting in March of 2000 when the stock market crashed and a severe recession began. 

We again warned our viewers about the problems of excessive debt during the housing bubble of 2005 to 2008 when Alan Greenspan, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, decided to lower interest rates to 1% in June of 2003.  This caused the largest housing mania of all time.  Banks were virtually pushing money to anyone that wanted a loan to buy a house (whether they could afford it or not.)  Back then--they called these loans “no doc loans”.  These were loans that were made without any documentation whatsoever.

The amazing part of this era was that Greenspan warned stock investors about the “irrational exuberance” that was taking place in the late 1990s as the stock market rose almost every day. [More]

But Politics, Debt, and Stagflation May Change Things
2/28/17 1:05 AM

The Trump rally, which began during the overnight session the night of November 8th has, in our view, built perfection into prices, which we think were already priced to near perfection.  In the bull case, fundamentals were already improving and President Trump’s proposed cutting of regulations, taxes, and instituting pro-growth fiscal spending, just adds fuel to the fire. [More]

The Great Divide
By Alan Abelson, Barrons

We live in an age of anxiety, and rightly so: Worries about the global economy are most emphatically not just in our imagination. The question is, who's going to bear the blame, come November?

The Age of Anxiety? With all due apologies to the late W.H. [More]

Send in the Magicians - By ALAN ABELSON
The economy desperately needs a shot in the arm, all the more so with the end of quantitative easing.

It's time Stephen Sondheim wrote another carnival song, and, more specifically, a sequel to the hauntingly memorable "Send in the Clowns" from his 1973 musical, A Little Night Music, which has proved so eerily prophetic in describing this year's political scene. As a glance at the crowded roster of Republican wannabe candidates for the presidency in next year's election makes clear, the powers that be in the GOP obviously have taken quite literally Sondheim's injunction that served as the title of the song, while the Democrats already have their very own barker and no shortage of mountebanks ensconced in their big tent. [More]

What's the Real P/E Ratio?

The bearish view on earnings makes the most sense.

IF YOU WATCH OR READ OR LISTEN TO BUSINESS NEWS, you must be getting very confused about whether the stock market is undervalued or overvalued. [More]

Bear Funds Lick Chops
By Gregg Greenberg-TheStreet.com Staff Reporter

Short-selling funds are ready to come out of hibernation.
Bear funds have had a rough run the past two years, as their strategy of betting against stocks has put them on the wrong side of a solid bull market. [More]

Barron's Magazine - By Alan Abelson
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET - True Confessions

NORMALLY, WE DON'T GIVE a hoot as to who wins when one bunch of 25 millionaires takes up glove and ball against another bunch of 25 millionaires. It's like rooting for Gates against Buffett, or visa versa, when they don their knickers and face off in a game of golf. [More]

The Missing 9.4 Million Jobs
Barrons Magazine (Market Watch)
Although the 947,000 increase in payroll employment over the last three months may seem like a lot compared to what we were getting, it actually falls far short of what we should be seeing at this stage of a recovery.

Here's what we found in examining the last seven economic recoveries: In the first 30 months of the last seven cyclical expansions, employment rose by an average of 7.4% (range: 9.6% to 2.6%). This includes one cycle that peaked in 24 months with a gain of 7.4%. [More]

A Simple Calculation
Barron's Magazine
Price divided by earnings: What could be easier? By CHARLIE MINTER and MARTY WEINER THE READERS OF MOST financial publications must be somewhat confused by the different P/E ratios that are used by the so-called experts on Wall Street. They read or hear a well-respected analyst or strategist eloquently making a very compelling case as to why the market is more undervalued now than almost any time in history. [More]

Charlie Minter appears on CNBC
Low speed stream  High speed stream 

  Last Major Comstock Report
Dated, but not out of date
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started


The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century. [More]

Difference between Past Fed Tightening and Now
1/04/16 8:30 AM

A reporter asked us about the prospects of the stock market if the Fed raises the Fed Funds rate, since at the time there was a strong possibility of a rise in the rate to around 25 basis points.  We explained that, in our opinion, the ending of the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and increase in Fed Funds will be a significant negative for the stock market. [More]

Comstock Bull / Bear Meter

  What Others Say
Financial Sanity
Dear Sirs, Just had to say to you thank you, thank you for your wonderful financial sanity.
Comment on Cycle of Deflation
Hello from Ireland again (i've mailed a few years over the past). I still enjoy checking your excellent site every friday morning. One comment on the cycle of deflation - you have plant closing & debt defaults happening after competitive devaluation however this, to a large degree and in Ireland anyways, seems to have come first. Maybe you could explain this? Also, I have to say that even though I think you are right and will be proven so soon enough, you tend to underestimate [having read your column for ten years now I think you underestimate by a 2-4 years] the reflationary power of Central Banks and for how long they can keep them up for. [More]
Cycle of Deflation theory
I'm sure that other regular readers of your commentary have noticed the term "beggar-thy-neighbor" showing up more and more in the press and online. It seems to validate the "cycle of deflation" theory you have posed for so long. We've been warned. Thanks.
Wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years
I would like your permission to send a copy of your 8/25/11 market commentary to them since I agree that we are in a major credit/debt contraction of hugh scale and a good deal of the asset write-downs are ahead not behind us. irrespective of your answer I want to thank you for wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years.
Your Message is Loud & Clear
Your weekly commentary plus the weekly postings on John Hussman's site should serve as required reading for anybody trying to follow this market. Your message (much more concise than Dr Hussman's, I have to say)is loud & clear.

Minter & Weiner Chat
click here to see the commentary


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