Question from a reader-"I'm confused about a question that rests at the heart of efforts to revive the economy.What ended the great depression?Was it the war, war spending, or some other mechanism?I think I've been taught, and I easily accepted that it was the war spending along with the 'full employment' of labor that cracked the downward spiral of the 1930's.I just can't imagine that all the wasted resources paid for with war debt during the war could have had less of an effect on the nation's economic future than the spending now necessary to create jobs, provide healthcare, and rebuild the infrastructure of the nation."
Answer---This is a controversial topic on which economists and investors disagree, and we'll probably never know the answer.Although the unemployment rate improved markedly from about 25% at the depths of the depression to about 11% by the late 1930s, the nation's economy was still depressed prior to the war.Some observers claim that the New Deal programs just did not spend enough while others feel that the government spending actually hampered the recovery.[More]
In our view the strong rally off last year's March low is a contra-cyclical move within a secular bear market that started in March 2000.We have been undergoing a major credit crisis, followed by severe decline in income, a collapse in asset prices and record debt.A number of detailed studies have shown that economic recoveries following such events are of short duration and extremely weak at best.Despite massive efforts at stimulation, we see no reason why the outcome this time will be any different, and the evidence so far supports this view.[More]
Short-selling funds are ready to come out of hibernation. Bear funds have had a rough run the past two years, as their strategy of betting against stocks has put them on the wrong side of a solid bull market.[More]
FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW Dated, but not out of date 12/10/99 The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started
Introduction
The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century.[More]
Bloomberg Interview - The Fed and Treasury Dept. claim that the housing bubble could not be foreseen. Take a look at this video to see how obvious it really was.
I simply want to thank you for providing your frequent commentary on our economic outlook. It is always insightful. I simply look to many resources in trying to determine what lies ahead for our future. Your perspective has been very much appreciated these past several years.[More]
First of all, I love your work and the honest commentary you provide.
My question is this: Of the $40 trillion in Individual and corporate debt, I was wondering if any of it is double counted? For example, all home mortgage debt is counted properly to individuals. However, most of that debt is securitized and issued as debt again by a sponsoring institution. The same for some commercial real estate, credit card receivables, auto loans, etc.[More]
I have read your updates for years. 1/28/10 Dear Comstock Partners,
I have read your weekly (prior daily) market updates for years. I find them to be outstanding for their thoroughness, easy to understand and accurate assessments. I just read your special report "Total Debt Relative to GDP" This is a great report. I agree 200% with your assessment.[More]
"The Total Debt Relative to GDP Trumps Everything Else" was superb. Henry Van der Eb, portfolio manager for the Mathers Fund (whom you probably know, given that you are both part of the Gabelli group) got me stewing about the consequences of excessive total U.S. debt more than ten years ago; and he still pounds the subject in every quarterly report to stockholders. For most of that time I presumed excessive federal debt would lead to serious inflation, perhaps even hyper-inflation as described in Harry Figgie's book, Bankruptcy 1995.[More]
According to the White House today the recession is over!!! Generally, when corporations want to determine consumers' desires or support for a product they conduct focus groups, which are ultimately skewed by the setting. We've found simple surveys standing in the grocery store with a cart just asking a shopper gives a much better response. Metrics are the new word for figuring out a trend.[More]
Shares of the Comstock Capital Value Fund are only offered for sale in the United States. The materials in this website are not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any security , nor shall any such security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase, or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, sales charges and expense of the fund carefully before investing. The prospectus contains more complete information about this and other matters. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing.This Fund utilizes short selling and derivatives. Short selling of securities and use of derivatives pose special risks and may not be suitable for certain investors. Short selling is the sale of a borrowed security and losses are realized if a price of a security increases between the date the security is sold and the date the Fund replaces it. Derivatives may be riskier than other types of investments because they may respond more to changes in economic conditions than other investments.
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