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Market Commentary - Archives
 
Happy New Year--Special Report Will Be Out Next Week
12/31/08 3:00 PM
 
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays
12/24/08 1:00 PM
 
The Fed's Big Experiment
12/18/08 6:00 PM
 
Reasonable Value vs. Terrible Economy
12/11/08 7:00 PM
 
Guidelines For a Market Bottom
12/04/08 4:45 PM
 
Past Reports You May Find Interesting
Have a Happy and Healthy Thanksgiving
11/26/08 12:20 PM
 
Today's Comment is Included in Today's Special Report
See Special Reports "Putting It All Together" 11/20/2008
11/20/08 3:45 PM
 
TARP Bailout Shifting Focus
Earnings Estimates Continue to Decline
11/13/08 4:30 PM
 
Obama May Want to Demand a Recount
Worldwide Rate Reductions
11/06/08 6:30 PM
 
Ideology
How Low Can It Go?
10/30/08 6:30 PM
 
Greenspan's Mea Culpa
10/23/08 6:30 PM
 
Market Now Fairly Valued--But Not Cheap
10/16/08 6:00 PM
 
How Low Can It Go?
Fear & Capitulation Stage of Bear Market
10/09/08 11:30 AM
 
We Hope to Be Wrong
10/02/08 5:30 PM
 
Market Problems Far From Over
9/25/08 7:00 PM
 
Treasury Bailout--Interim Comment
9/19/08 4:15 PM
 
More Predictions
We Have Entered the Fear and Capitulation Stage of the Bear Market
9/18/08 8:20 AM
 
Government Bailouts
Do They Work?
9/11/08 2:00 PM
 
Why Does it Make Sense to Use Operating Earnings?
Operating Earnings Exclude Write Offs
9/04/08 9:00 AM
 
What is the Real Housing Decline?
8/28/08 4:00 PM
 
Movie I.O.U.S.A.
8/21/08 3:45 PM
 
Stay The Course
8/14/08 3:30 PM
 
Sub Prime Mortgages –Tip of the Iceberg
Bear Market Soon to Go to Final Phase
8/07/08 4:00 PM
 
Still in Rally Phase between Concern and Fear & Capitulation
Budget Deficit is very much Understated
7/31/08 2:45 PM
 
Rally between the "Concern Stage" and "Fear & Capitulation Stage"
7/24/08 10:00 AM
 
It's All About Housing
Rally between Concern Phase and Fear & Capitulation Stage
7/17/08 3:00 PM
 
Explanation of the Predictions Made Last Week
Market Will Continue Down Even if Commodities Decline
7/10/08 5:15 PM
 
Subprime Mortgages--Tip of the Iceberg
Bear Market Soon to Go to Final Phase
7/07/08 4:00 PM
 
Happy 4th of July Holiday Weekend
7/03/08 2:00 PM
 
Three Stages of Bear Market
6/26/08 11:00 AM
 
RBS Is Almost As Bearish As We Are
More Headwinds
6/19/08 11:30 AM
 
There will be no comment today.
6/12/08 4:15 AM
 
It's The Housing Market, Stupid!
6/05/08 9:30 AM
 
Bear Market Continues to be Sparked by Housing
5/29/08 6:45 PM
 
What is the Real P/E?
Special Report with Updated Numbers
5/23/08 3:55 PM
 
Report will be out tomorrow evening
5/22/08 7:00 PM
 
Headwinds vs. Tailwinds
5/15/08 3:45 PM
 
Are Earnings Estimates Realistic?
Economy Not as Strong as Latest Releases Indicate
5/08/08 2:00 PM
 
Its All About Housing
5/01/08 4:15 PM
 
Stronger Economic News Sparks Market Rally
4/24/08 5:30 PM
 
Market Decline Has Further To Go
4/17/08 7:00 PM
 
The Three Negatives--Credit, the Economy and Valuation
4/10/08 7:30 PM
 
Why It's Not a Major Bottom
4/03/08 5:30 PM
 
How We Got Into This Mess
3/27/08 7:30 PM
 
Fed Can't Do It Alone
3/20/08 7:00 PM
 
Credit Crisis Still Underestimated
3/13/08 6:30 PM
 
Extent Of Crisis Becoming More Evident
3/06/08 6:30 PM
 
Market is Complacent Rather Than Fearful
2/28/08 6:30 PM
 
Some Quotes From Past Comments
2/21/08 6:00 PM
 
Credit Problems Far From Over
2/14/08 7:00 PM
 
Market Outlook Remains Bleak
2/07/08 6:30 PM
 
Look Beyond the Volatility--The Trend is Down
1/31/08 6:30 PM
 
No Easy Cure For Market Or Economy
1/24/08 7:00 PM
 
The Bear Market is Only Beginning
1/17/08 7:00 PM
 
The Stages of a Bear Market--Denial, Concern, Capitulation
1/10/08 7:30 PM
 
Financial and Economic Situation Still Worsening
1/03/08 7:00 PM
 
Too Early to Look For a Bottom
12/27/07 5:00 PM
 
Bond Insurers--The Next Crisis?
12/20/07 5:30 PM
 
Too Early to Look For a Bottom
12/17/07 5:00 PM
 
Fed Throwing the Economy a Band-Aid
12/13/07 6:00 PM
 
Too Little, Too Late
12/06/07 5:00 PM
 
The Bear Market Has a Long Way to Go
11/29/07 5:30 PM
 
Happy Thanksgiving
11/21/07 5:00 PM
 
Market Decline Far From Over
11/15/07 7:00 PM
 
Short Comment Today--Next Comment 11/15/07
11/08/07 11:30 PM
 
Misplaced Faith in the Fed and the Global Economy
11/01/07 6:30 PM
 
The Spreading Contagion
10/25/07 7:00 PM
 
Wishful Thinking on the Housing Mess
10/18/07 6:30 PM
 
The Hard Road Ahead
10/11/07 6:30 PM
 
Housing Impact on Economy Still Underestimated
10/04/07 7:00 PM
 
The Developing Storm
9/27/07 6:30 PM
 
Why the Rate Cuts Won't Work
9/20/07 9:30 PM
 
Strong Signals of Recession
9/13/07 7:00 PM
 
No Return to Normality
9/06/07 6:30 PM
 
Fed's Dilemma Continues
8/30/07 5:30 PM
 
No End in Sight
8/23/07 6:00 PM
 
House of Cards is Tumbling Down
8/16/07 7:30 PM
 
Liquidity Not There When it's Needed Most
8/09/07 10:00 PM
 
The Problems That Won't Go Away
8/02/07 9:30 PM
 
Not Just Another Dip
7/26/07 7:00 PM
 
Fed is Completely Boxed In
7/19/07 3:00 PM
 
The Mr. Magoo Market
7/12/07 7:00 PM
 
HAPPY HOLIDAYS!
7/05/07 3:00 PM
 
Fed Remains Adrift
6/28/07 7:00 PM
 
The Tip of the Iceberg?
6/21/07 6:00 PM
 
Summary of the Bearish Case
6/14/07 5:30 PM
 
Inflation Fears Preventing Fed Action
6/07/07 7:30 PM
 
The Hard Landing is Here
5/31/07
 
Jump in New Home Sales a One-Off Event
5/24/07 6:00 PM
 
Why the Risks are High
5/17/07 6:00 PM
 
On the Cusp
5/10/07 7:00 PM
 
Awash in Liquidity
5/03/07 3:00 PM
 
Fact and Fantasy
4/26/07 7:00 PM
 
A Brief Summary
4/19/07 5:00 PM
 
Put Yourself in Their Shoes
4/12/07 5:30 PM
 
Subprime Problem Not an Isolated Event
4/05/07 5:30 PM
 
The Fed's Revised Message
3/29/07 5:00 PM
 
A Monty Python Moment
3/22/07 5:00 PM
 
The Myth of Strong Employment
3/15/07 4:30 PM
 
No Time For Complacency
3/08/07 7:00 PM
 
The Bell is Ringing
3/01/07 7:00 PM
 
Unraveling Housing Market is the Key
2/22/07 6:00 PM
 
Does This Look Like Goldilocks?
2/15/07 6:30 PM
 
The Housing Noose is Tightening
2/08/07 6:30 PM
 
Market Still Highly Overvalued
2/01/07 6:30 PM
 
Why It's Still A Secular Bear Market
1/25/07 6:30 PM
 
Declining Commodity Prices Signify Weakening Economy
1/11/07 6:30 PM
 
Don't Believe the Hype on Housing
1/04/07 6:00 PM
 
Happy Holidays
12/21/06 3:30 PM
 
The Ripple Effect of Housing and Autos
12/14/06 5:30 PM
 
What? Me Worry?
12/07/06 7:00 PM
 
Paulson Believes a Financial Crisis is Overdue
11/30/06 7:00 PM
 
Happy Thanksgiving
11/22/06 4:00 PM
 
Why the Market is Resting on Quicksand
11/16/06 11:00 PM
 
The Death Spiral
11/09/06 7:30 PM
 
Goodbye Goldilocks
11/02/06 6:30 PM
 
The Fragile Assumptions Underlying the Market
10/26/06 7:30 PM
 
Housing Stability? Don't Believe It
10/19/06 7:30 PM
 
CEO Confidence and Housing Deterioration vs. Goldilocks
10/12/06 6:30 PM
 
The Market is Still Significantly Overvalued
10/05/06 7:30 PM
 
No Predictive Value In Record Dow Price
9/28/06 6:30 PM
 
Soft Landing?--Why Fight the Odds
9/21/06 7:00 PM
 
The Hard Landing For Housing is Already Here
9/14/06 7:30 PM
 
A Precarious Balance
9/07/06 7:00 PM
 
The Dangers Ahead
8/31/06 7:00 PM
 
The Dot-Coms in 2000 and Housing in 2006
8/24/06 7:00 PM
 
The Calm Before the Storm
8/17/06 7:00 PM
 
The Pause Lays An Egg
8/10/06 7:00 PM
 
When the Fed Stops Tightening
8/03/06 5:00 PM
 
The Heavy Odds Against A Soft Landing
7/27/06 6:00 PM
 
A Fork In The Road
7/20/06 7:00 PM
 
It's All About Greed and Fear
7/12/06 10:00 AM
 
The "Soft Landing" Myth
7/06/06 6:30 PM
 
Perceptions and Reality
6/29/06 7:00 PM
 
Fed Still Caught in a Trap
6/22/06 8:00 PM
 
Forget the Spin--the Market is Overvalued
6/15/06 11:00 PM
 
It's Not About Bernanke
6/08/06 8:00 PM
 
Why We Remain Bearish
6/01/06 6:00 PM
 
Market Caught in the Crosscurrents
5/25/06 11:00 PM
 
The Tipping Point
5/18/06 8:00 PM
 
Divining the Meaning of "Yet"
5/11/06 4:00 PM
 
Bernanke's Continuing Dilemma
5/04/06 11:00 PM
 
Bernanke's Cloudy Crystal Ball
4/27/06 7:00 PM
 
Fed Locked in by Prior Policy Errors
4/20/06 7:30 PM
 
Market Showing Signs of Deterioration
4/13/06 3:30 PM
 
Lessons Ignored
4/06/06 7:30 PM
 
It's "One More and Done" All Over Again
3/30/06 7:00 PM
 
What Really Happens When the Fed Stops Tightening
3/23/06 7:00 PM
 
Impact of Fed Tightening Still Ahead
3/16/06 10:30 PM
 
The Importance of Housing
3/09/06 9:00 PM
 
The Derivatives Mess
3/02/06 7:30 PM
 
Public's Rush to Buy Stocks Not a Good Sign
2/23/06 7:30 PM
 
The Transition is Smooth--The Problems Remain
2/16/06 6:30 PM
 
Readers' Questions
2/09/06 7:30 PM
 
Bernanke Facing Tough Problems
2/02/06 8:30 PM
 
End of Fed Tightening Cycle Not Bullish
1/26/06 10:30 PM
 
Current Conditions Typical of Market Peak
1/20/06 12:30 PM
 
Economic Expansion Far Weaker Than Average
1/12/06 7:30 PM
 
Fed Minutes Reveal Nothing New
1/05/06 7:30 PM
 
Happy New Year
12/29/05 5:30 PM
 
Softening Housing Market Puts Global Economy at Risk
12/22/05 10:30 PM
 
A Tempest in a Teapot
12/15/05 8:00 PM
 
Market Looks Toppy
12/08/05 6:30 PM
 
Why 1994-1995 is not Relevant Today
12/01/05 8:00 PM
 
Market Action Still Suspect
11/25/05 1:30 PM
 
Technical Outlook Weak Despite Rally
11/17/05 7:00 PM
 
No Way Out For the Fed
11/10/05 7:30 PM
 
Watch Out Below
11/03/05 7:30 PM
 
Bernanke Inheriting a Mess
10/27/05 6:00 PM
 
Secular Bear Market Continues
10/20/05 6:00 PM
 
Market Risk to the Bears
Catalyst to Resumption of Secular Bear Market
10/13/05 6:15 PM
 
A High-Risk Market
10/06/05 7:30 PM
 
Next Commentary Will Be Oct 6th Due to Travel Schedule
9/29/05 11:30 PM
 
Market Based on Earnings & the Valuation of Earnings
Hurricanes and Category Changes are Secondary
9/22/05 5:15 PM
 
Plunge Protection Team Won't Prevent A Bear Market
9/15/05 7:00 PM
 
Underestimating the Loss of a City
9/08/05 7:30 PM
 
Katrina--the Tipping Point?
9/01/05 7:30 PM
 
The Fed's Dilemma Continues
8/25/05 7:30 PM
 
Presidential Cycle Adds to the Risk
8/18/05 7:00 PM
 
The Potential Crisis at Fannie Mae
8/11/05 2:00 PM
 
Low Bond Rates Mean Ever Higher Funds Rate
8/04/05 4:00 PM
 
A High-Risk Market
7/28/05 7:00 PM
 
Greenspan's Real Concerns
7/21/05 5:00 PM
 
Breakout Likely to Prove False
7/14/05 5:30 PM
 
Cycle of Deflation Revisited
Written: 07/07/05
7/07/05 4:30 PM
 
Beware of What You Wish For
6/30/05 6:30 PM
 
Fed Aiming at Soaring Asset Values--A Follow-up
6/23/05 7:30 PM
 
Fed Now Aiming Policy at Soaring Asset Values?
6/16/05 7:00 PM
 
Five Years Later: Risks Still Worsening
6/09/05 10:00 PM
 
Why We Remain Bearish: A Summary
6/02/05 5:00 PM
 
2005 is Not Like 1995
5/26/05 6:00 PM
 
It's Not Different This Time
5/19/05 8:00 PM
 
The Weight of the Evidence
5/12/05 7:00 PM
 
Fed Follies
5/05/05 6:00 PM
 
What You Think You Know That Isn't So
4/28/05 6:00 PM
 
A Secular Bear Market
4/21/05 6:00 PM
 
"And Then, Alas, it's Too Late"
4/14/05 6:30 PM
 
Is Anybody Listening?
4/07/05 7:00 PM
 
Market in Late-Cycle Topping Process
3/31/05 7:30 PM
 
Monetary Tightening Negative for Stocks
3/24/05 7:30 PM
 
  


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